Three years after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s re-election, Somalia finds itself once again at a political and constitutional crossroads. According to former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheyre, what began in 2022 with promises of reform, reconciliation, and strengthened federalism has instead become a period marked by deepening mistrust, contested constitutional amendments, and growing disillusionment among both citizens and political leaders.
The Somali Salvation Forum, a coalition dominated by former presidents and prime ministers, has emerged as the loudest voice of opposition. Their central charge: that President Hassan Sheikh’s administration has undermined the very foundations of the state by unilaterally amending the provisional constitution, mismanaging public resources, and failing to deliver on key development and security promises.
According to the opposition, at the heart of the political impasse lies the controversial amendment of the 2012 Provisional Constitution, the document that had been painstakingly negotiated as the foundation of Somalia’s fragile federal system. Opposition leaders argue that the process lacked legitimacy and bypassed both parliamentary scrutiny and wider public consensus.
“Constitutional changes of this magnitude require dialogue, consensus, and legality, not unilateral decrees,” said former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. “The Somali people deserve a leadership that respects the rule of law and puts the nation’s interest above political survival.”
Roble, who oversaw the country during a tense transition period in 2021–2022, stressed that Somalia’s institutions cannot afford to relapse into authoritarian-style politics. He warned that the exclusion of Puntland and Jubbaland from key negotiations has already weakened national unity.
Other former leaders have echoed these concerns, pointing to widespread corruption, weak institutions, and what they describe as the “misuse of public resources” under the current administration. Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheyre, who governed from 2017 to 2020, lamented the state of governance today:
The Somali people deserve peace, unity, and accountable leadership. For the sake of the nation’s future, it is time for the President to step aside and allow a lawful and inclusive transition to take place.
Kheyre, once seen as a technocrat who sought to strengthen fiscal discipline, pointed out that Somalia’s reliance on donor aid, currently covering nearly 70% of the national budget, cannot be sustained without transparent and accountable leadership.
The opposition’s frustration is not limited to constitutional disputes. Forced evictions and land disputes in Mogadishu have added fuel to the fire. In a rare joint statement, former presidents Abdiqasim Salad Hassan, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo condemned what they termed “the abuse of public land for private and political interests.”
They reminded the government of its constitutional duty to safeguard public resources and called for the resettlement of displaced families. “Power should not be exercised at the expense of the most vulnerable,” the statement read.
The current political environment has also seen the erosion of cooperation between Mogadishu and federal member states. Relations with Puntland and Jubbaland, two key regions, have deteriorated, with both accusing the federal government of centralizing power and ignoring the principles of federalism.
Clashes in Gedo, where Somali soldiers trained to combat terrorism have instead turned their guns on each other, highlight the dangers of these divisions. “This is a tragedy for our nation,” Roble observed.
With less than a year remaining in President Hassan Sheikh’s mandate, Somalia has yet to establish a credible and inclusive roadmap for elections. The ongoing voter registration process in Mogadishu has been marred by accusations of coercion and manipulation.
“The ongoing voter registration process in Mogadishu, seen by many as illegitimate and coercive, lacks the consensus and transparency needed for a credible electoral process,” said Kheyre.
The absence of an agreed electoral framework has fueled fears of another disputed transition. Analysts warn that if the deadlock persists, Somalia risks sliding back into contested power struggles that could undo the modest gains of the past decade.
The Somali government’s struggles have also strained relations with the international community. Donor nations, frustrated by corruption and lack of accountability, have withheld or redirected funding. This shortfall has jeopardized the African Union peacekeeping mission, raising security concerns at a time when Al-Shabaab remains a formidable threat.
Opposition leaders insist that Somalia’s salvation lies not in confrontation, but in a return to dialogue, consensus, and adherence to constitutional norms. Roble summed it up simply: “Our path forward lies in dialogue, justice, and shared responsibility. Only then can we achieve the Somalia we all hope for.”
For Kheyre, the answer is accountability: “The President must be held to the same standards he once demanded of others. The Somali people deserve peace, unity, and accountable leadership. Anything less is unacceptable.”
Somalia’s current political turbulence is more than a clash of personalities; it is a test of whether the country can preserve its fragile democratic gains and avoid sliding back into authoritarianism or state failure. With opposition figures, former leaders, and international partners raising alarms, the next nine months will be decisive.
